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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: a renewed assault of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The succession of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are conducted: hopeful statements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".

Nocturnal Warfare

As military strikes unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is able to track rocket firings from Russian territory, a capability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft delivered to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by Western nations. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The brief panic quickly gives way to sober acceptance: maybe the incoming missile won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.

With pauses, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: several casualties, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that European nations are demonstrably unable to substitute in the near term.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The detailed framework from US administration provoked deep reactions, controversy and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new proposal from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, continue.

Strategic Calculations

It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a principle familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does little to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the coming year.

Opposing Positions

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its favour.

Existing Situation

Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are entering the equation: personal goals to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, mainly require ongoing international assistance.