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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Governmental Mandate

Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is looming, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in universities but scarcely any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the fundamentals. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.

Discussions encompass identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and provoke dialogue.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on each side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses something to acquire from the alternative positions."

Appeal for Wider Debate

Westminster must join the debate, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."